Worked examples
One ticker, all the way through.
GFL is the flagship: a real run, every number traceable, from the archetype call to a bear / base / bull fair value. Below it, three reference cases show how the same engine treats an Apple, an NVIDIA, and an Intel differently, because they are different kinds of company.
Bear
$35.62
Base
$41.44
Bull
$53.25
Base fair value $41.44 vs a ~$39.26 price, about +5.6%. Right on top of the tape.
How the base is built
source · live AXIOM run, gfl_facts.md (FY26 guidance midpoint, CAD to USD 0.73, net debt $6.87B, 361M sh)
The call the archetype forces
GFL trades on defensive volumes but carries a cyclical balance sheet. Routing it CYCLICAL credits the pricing durability and discounts for ~4.0x leverage and M&A execution risk. The engine lands at $41, right on the price.
The Street sits near $55, Buy-heavy. That ~$14 gap over the price reads as a capitalised take-private premium, not operating value. On fundamentals, GFL is fairly valued, which is the whole, falsifiable point.
Reference cases
Same engine, different math.
Illustrative, from the methodology doc rather than a live run, enough to show that the archetype, not the analyst, decides the treatment.
AAPL
Stable Growth
8% growth · 25.7% margin · beta 1.25
Standard DCF, 3.0% terminal, brand-premium multiple.
~$2.8-3.2T
fairly valued
NVDA
Growth
95% growth · 48.9% margin · beta 1.68
Growth premium, slow 88% decay, 3.5% terminal.
~$1.3-1.5T
depends on AI durability
INTC
Distressed
-5% growth · 2.3% margin · 45% capex
Normalize EBITDA to ~25%, capex to ~12%; turnaround discount.
~$220-280B
if the transition works
source · INVESTMENT_BANKING_METHODOLOGY.md, 2024/2025 vintage · illustrative, not current fair values